Modelling Palliative and End of Life resource requirements during COVID-19: implications for quality care (preprint)

Background There were between 84,891 and 113,139 all-cause excess deaths in the United States (US) from February 1st to 25th May 2020. These deaths are widely attributed directly and indirectly to the COVID-19 pandemic. This surge in death necessitates a matched health system response to relieve serious health related suffering at the end of life (EoL) and achieve a dignified death, through timely and appropriate expertise, medication and equipment. Identifying the human and material resource needed relies on modelling resource and understanding anticipated surges in demand. Methods A Discrete Event Simulation model designed in collaboration with health service funders, health providers, clinicians and modellers in the South West of England was created to estimate the resources required during the COVID-19 pandemic to care for deaths from COVID-19 in the community for a geographical area of nearly 1 million people. While our analysis focused on the UK setting, the model is flexible to changes in demand and setting. Results The model predicts that a mean of 11.97 hours (0.18 hours Standard Error (SE), up to a max of 28 hours) of additional community nurse time, up to 33 hours of care assistant time (mean 9.17 hours, 0.23 hours SE), and up to 30 hours additional care from care assistant night-sits (mean of 5.74 hours per day, 0.22 hours SE) will be required per day as a result of out of hospital COVID-19 deaths. Specialist palliative care demand is predicted to increase up to 19 hours per day (mean of 9.32 hours per day, 0.12 hours SE). An additional 286 anticipatory medicine bundles or "just in case" prescriptions per month will be necessary to alleviate physical symptoms at the EoL care for patients with COVID-19: an average additional 10.21 bundles (0.06 SE) of anticipatory medication per day. An average additional 9.35 syringe pumps (0.11 SE) could be needed to be in use per day (between 1 and 20 syringe pumps). Conclusion Modelling provides essential data to prepare, plan and deliver a palliative care pandemic response tailored to local work patterns and resource. The analysis for a large region in the South West of England shows the significant additional physical and human resource required to relieve suffering at the EoL as part of a pandemic response.

Estimating excess mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity in the COVID-19 emergency (preprint)

Background: Cancer and multiple non-cancer conditions are considered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as high risk conditions in the COVID-19 emergency. Professional societies have recommended changes in cancer service provision to minimize COVID-19 risks to cancer patients and health care workers. However, we do not know the extent to which cancer patients, in whom multi-morbidity is common, may be at higher overall risk of mortality as a net result of multiple factors including COVID-19 infection, changes in health services, and socioeconomic factors. Methods: We report multi-center, weekly cancer diagnostic referrals and chemotherapy treatments until April 2020 in England and Northern Ireland. We analyzed population-based health records from 3,862,012 adults in England to estimate 1-year mortality in 24 cancer sites and 15 non-cancer comorbidity clusters (40 conditions) recognized by CDC as high-risk. We estimated overall (direct and indirect) effects of COVID-19 emergency on mortality under different Relative Impact of the Emergency (RIE) and different Proportions of the population Affected by the Emergency (PAE). We applied the same model to the US, using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program data. Results: Weekly data until April 2020 demonstrate significant falls in admissions for chemotherapy (45-66% reduction) and urgent referrals for early cancer diagnosis (70-89% reduction), compared to pre-emergency levels. Under conservative assumptions of the emergency affecting only people with newly diagnosed cancer (incident cases) at COVID-19 PAE of 40%, and an RIE of 1.5, the model estimated 6,270 excess deaths at 1 year in England and 33,890 excess deaths in the US. In England, the proportion of patients with incident cancer with [≥]1 comorbidity was 65.2%. The number of comorbidities was strongly associated with cancer mortality risk. Across a range of model assumptions, and across incident and prevalent cancer cases, 78% of excess deaths occur in cancer patients with [≥]1 comorbidity. Conclusion: We provide the first estimates of potential excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity due to the COVID-19 emergency and demonstrate dramatic changes in cancer services. To better inform prioritization of cancer care and guide policy change, there is an urgent need for weekly data on cause-specific excess mortality, cancer diagnosis and treatment provision and better intelligence on the use of effective treatments for comorbidities.

Factors affecting COVID-19 outcomes in cancer patients - A first report from Guys Cancer Centre in London (preprint)

BackgroundThere is insufficient evidence to support clinical decision-making for cancer patients diagnosed with COVID-19 due to the lack of large studies. MethodsWe used data from a single large UK Cancer Centre to assess demographic/clinical characteristics of 156 cancer patients with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 29 February-12 May 2020. Logistic/Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify which demographic and/or clinical characteristics were associated with COVID-19 severity/death. Results128 (82%) presented with mild/moderate COVID-19 and 28 (18%) with severe disease. Initial diagnosis of cancer >24m before COVID-19 (OR:1.74 (95%CI: 0.71-4.26)), presenting with fever (6.21 (1.76-21.99)), dyspnoea (2.60 (1.00-6.76)), gastro-intestinal symptoms (7.38 (2.71-20.16)), or higher levels of CRP (9.43 (0.73-121.12)) were linked with greater COVID-19 severity. During median follow-up of 47d, 34 patients had died of COVID-19 (22%). Asian ethnicity (3.73 (1.28-10.91), palliative treatment (5.74 (1.15-28.79), initial diagnosis of cancer >24m before (2.14 (1.04-4.44), dyspnoea (4.94 (1.99-12.25), and increased CRP levels (10.35 (1.0552.21)) were positively associated with COVID-19 death. An inverse association was observed with increased levels of albumin (0.04 (0.01-0.04). ConclusionsA longer-established diagnosis of cancer was associated with increasing severity of infection as well as COVID-19 death, possibly reflecting effects of more advanced malignant disease impact on this infection. Asian ethnicity and palliative treatment were also associated with COVID-19 death in cancer patients. Contribution to the fieldIn the context of cancer, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to challenging decision-making. These are supported by limited evidence with small case studies being reported from China, Italy, New York and a recent consortium of 900 patients from over 85 hospitals in the USA, Canada, and Spain. As a result of their limited sample sizes, most studies were not able to distinguish between the effects of age, cancer, and other comorbidities on COVID-19 outcomes. Moreover, the case series from New York analysed which patient characteristics are associated with COVID-19 death, but only made a comparison with non-cancer patients. The first results of the COVID-19 and Cancer Consortium provide insights from a large cohort in terms of COVID-19 mortality, though a wide variety of institutions with different COVID-19 testing procedures were included. Given the current lack of (inter)national guidance for cancer patients in the context of COVID-19, we believe that our large cancer centre can provide an important contribution to the urgent need for further insight into the intersection between COVID-19 and cancer. With comprehensive in-house patient details, consistent inclusion criteria and up-to-date cancer and COVID-19 outcomes, we are in position to provide rapid analytical information to the oncological community.